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Is anyone here good with probabilities?

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Dralius
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Joined: 07/26/2008

Im working on a dice game and it’s easy enough to figure the chance of rolling a 1 on 5D6 but I need to figure more complex probabilities such as rolling a 1, 2 and 3 in the same roll on 5D6.

Any help is appreciated.

larienna
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Joined: 07/28/2008
Small Roller

I have a small program that is called "small roller" that seems to calculate various possibilities of probabilities. It run on windows.

...

I found their website, the software can be found here:

http://www.fnordistan.com/smallroller.html

Dralius
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Joined: 07/26/2008
Thanks for the link. I'll

Thanks for the link.

I'll take a look and see if this can do what i need.

Orangebeard
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Joined: 10/13/2011
Crash Course

Hi Dralius,

There are 3 basic probability scenarios
Independent (roll 2d6 and both results are 6)
Mutually Exclusive (roll 1d6 and the result is 1 OR 2)
Not Mutually Exclusive (draw 1 card from a standard 52 card deck and the card is a Heart or an Ace)

Using the examples above...
Independent Events are multiplied (1/6 x 1/6 = 1/36)
Mutually Exclusive Events are added (1/6 plus 1/6 = 2/6 or 1/3)
Not Mutually Exclusive are added, but results that can count for both are subtracted (13/52 (Hearts) + 4/52 (Aces) - 1/52 (Ace of Hearts) = 16/52 or 4/13)

These can be combined with each other for complex probabilities. For example, roll 5d6 and all of the dice show the same result (YAHTZEE!) Each die has a 1/6 chance of being a particular result; the dice results are independent events so they are multiplied (1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 *1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/7776) however, there are 6 possible results that would qualify (all 1's, all 2's etc.) and these results are mutually exclusive so they must be added (total is 6/7776 or 1/1296)

Hope this helps!

larienna
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Joined: 07/28/2008
Maybe I should make a page on

Maybe I should make a page on my website with all the probabilities formulas.

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