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A reboot of the game nights (wargame, hobby variant)

93 replies [Last post]
Fri, 11/14/2025 - 08:26
#91
X3M
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During the making of the simulator

A new question arrived. I need to clarify something in the rules.

If Reavers cannot fire. Do they still spend an AP?
Short answer: No.

If Reavers cannot fire. Do they still add to the bonus damage rule? (Bonus rule only applied if both sides fight)
Short answer: No.

This latter is very important in order to see if the Normal Tanks receive bonus damage.

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Fri, 11/14/2025 - 13:31
#92
X3M
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Joined: 10/28/2013
Debugging the simulator

I needed 1.5 hours to find out how to fix it. It was counting the numbers wrong somehow. I simply reorganised the program. And somehow it is fixed...
I have NO idea, how.

As for results. I only observe how many times a Reaver or Normal squad wins. I do not observe how many credits are left.
But they are still of influence on the outcome.

As for bonus damage. The Reavers get 6 dice instead of 4. And the Normal tanks get a 50% chance each, do add 1 more die.
By how I set up the entire calculator. The Normal can get at most only 4 bonus dice. While the Reavers can all get 2 extra dice, there are only 6 Reavers possible. But there are 18 Normal possible.

I run the program 10K times per situation. And observe whole numbers. It doesn't matter if a chance is 1% or 2%. It is just a bad chance.

As for credits remaining. I could make a separate counter for this. But it should be linked to when the Reavers win, or the Normal. I decided not to do this.

Note: A Reaver and a Normal are both worth 2 credits.
Even 10K seems to show some margin in strange results.

1 Reaver, 1 to 4 Credits, 2 Normal
_3%-25%-27%-27% Reaver
_1%-28%-33%-32% Tie
96%-47%-40%-41% Normal
Middleground is 2 credits: "-22"
No credit limit: "-14"

With sufficient credits, 1 Reaver cannot win against 2 Normal.

2 Reaver, 1 to 6 Credits, 3 Normal
_0%-12%-59%-73%-73%-74% Reaver
_0%-_0%-11%-15%-17%-16% Tie
100-88%-30%-12%-10%-10% Normal
Middleground is 2 credits: "-76"
No credit limit: "+64"

An unfair advantage for the Normal. Unless there are more credits involved. The breaking point is at 3 credits already.

2 Reaver, 1 to 6 Credits, 4 Normal
_0%-_4%-31%-43%-44%-44% Reaver
_0%-_0%-16%-23%-24%-25% Tie
100-96%-53%-34%-32%-31% Normal
Middleground is 4 credits: "+10"
No credit limit: "+14"

The middleground is the breaking point here. Funny enough, the chance on a tie is 24%, when there is no limit on credits.

2 Reaver, 1 to 6 Credits, 5 Normal
"Will continue another time."

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Sat, 11/15/2025 - 17:39
#93
X3M
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Let's observe the "middleground" situations only?

Sorry for the long post. Most of it is 2 tables. Enjoy...?

I will get a better feeling for what a "fair" situation will give. And 10k simulations again. I start with a number of Reavers, and have 1 more as Normal. Then I keep adding Normal and Credits. The win rate does go up a bit, but then...If the Reavers win goes down, I stop that batch.

Win-Tie-Loss-settings
25-28-47- 1 Reaver, 2 Credits, 2 Normal
_8-17-76- 1 Reaver, 4 Credits, 3 Normal
11-_0-89- 2 Reaver, 2 Credits, 3 Normal
41-24-35- 2 Reaver, 4 Credits, 4 Normal <+
20-21-59- 2 Reaver, 6 Credits, 5 Normal
_4-_0-96- 3 Reaver, 2 Credits, 4 Normal
26-_4-70- 3 Reaver, 4 Credits, 5 Normal
42-19-39- 3 Reaver, 6 Credits, 6 Normal <+
22-16-61- 3 Reaver, 8 Credits, 7 Normal
_1-_0_99- 4 Reaver, 2 Credits, 5 Normal
_2-_0_98- 4 Reaver, 4 Credits, 6 Normal
48-_5_47- 4 Reaver, 6 Credits, 7 Normal <+
53-15_32- 4 Reaver, 8 Credits, 8 Normal <+
34-16_50- 4 Reaver,10 Credits, 9 Normal
_0-0-100- 5 Reaver, 2 Credits, 6 Normal
_1-_0-99- 5 Reaver, 4 Credits, 7 Normal
11-_0-89- 5 Reaver, 6 Credits, 8 Normal
47-_6-47- 5 Reaver, 8 Credits, 9 Normal <=
51-14-35- 5 Reaver,10 Credits,10 Normal <+
34-14-52- 5 Reaver,12 Credits,11 Normal
_0-0-100- 6 Reaver, 2 Credits, 7 Normal
_0-0-100- 6 Reaver, 4 Credits, 8 Normal
_0-0-100- 6 Reaver, 6 Credits, 9 Normal
27-_1-72- 6 Reaver, 8 Credits,10 Normal
60-_6-34- 6 Reaver,10 Credits,11 Normal <+
59-12-30- 6 Reaver,12 Credits,12 Normal <+
44-13-43- 6 Reaver,14 Credits,13 Normal <+
28-12-60- 6 Reaver,16 Credits,14 Normal

So far...when the ammount of Normal goes up, and your Credits go up. You get this sweet spot of having Reavers as a good choice. Then it goes down again. The main reason will be that while ammunition goes up. The "firepower" will stop. Yet for the Normal, the firepower will keep going up.

I could reorganise the list where we see the ammount of Reavers and Credits change against a certain ammount of Normal. We see some weird developments. But this requires extra tests too. Not going to do that here. I also might add that the even number of reavers, somehow get more bonus opportunities. And thus have better scores.

Of course, it was never my goal to have the Reavers be "this weak". Their 2 main functions are to bring lots of doom when the player has sufficient credits. And to increase the squads damage output. Because, let's face it, if 6 Reavers is the maximum, the opponent has only 6 Normal at that point.

So, what is the list with infinite credits?

Win-Tie-Loss-settings
89-11-_1- 1 Reaver vs 1 Normal
27-32-41- 1 Reaver vs 2 Normal

100-0-_0- 2 Reaver vs 1 Normal
96-_3-_1- 2 Reaver vs 2 Normal
74-17-_9- 2 Reaver vs 3 Normal
44-24-32- 2 Reaver vs 4 Normal
21-21-58- 2 Reaver vs 5 Normal

100-0-_0- 3 Reaver vs 3 Normal
95-_4-_1- 3 Reaver vs 4 Normal
68-16-16- 3 Reaver vs 5 Normal
44-_9-37- 3 Reaver vs 6 Normal
23-17-60- 3 Reaver vs 7 Normal

100-0-_0- 4 Reaver vs 4 Normal
99-_1-_0- 4 Reaver vs 5 Normal
91-_6-_3- 4 Reaver vs 6 Normal
75-12-13- 4 Reaver vs 7 Normal
55-16-30- 4 Reaver vs 8 Normal
33-16-51- 4 Reaver vs 9 Normal

100-0-_0- 5 Reaver vs 6 Normal
98-_1-_1- 5 Reaver vs 7 Normal
87-_6-_7- 5 Reaver vs 8 Normal
71-12-17- 5 Reaver vs 9 Normal
52-14-34- 5 Reaver vs 10 Normal
34-15-52- 5 Reaver vs 11 Normal

100-0-_0- 6 Reaver vs 7 Normal
99-_0-_0- 6 Reaver vs 8 Normal
96-_2-_2- 6 Reaver vs 9 Normal
89-_5-_6- 6 Reaver vs 10 Normal
76-_9-15- 6 Reaver vs 11 Normal
60-11-29- 6 Reaver vs 12 Normal
43-13-44- 6 Reaver vs 13 Normal

The Reavers start to loose as soon as the number of enemies doubles, then add 1.
I checked one of the routes at 6 Reavers vs 13 Normal.
And in the first turn. 4 Reavers die, and 8! Normal die.
Also, 6 credits have been used. So the total losses in that first turn was 14 vs 16. Which is interesting to do. The next turn, it is 2 vs 5. You shouldn't attempt that one. I noticed over the past few months. That I have a lot of those situations where 1 side deals more damage. But then the next turn, the situation turns around.

Another thing to consider would be that the true value of fighting Reavers would be 1.5 times the number. Which would be 9 for 6 Reavers. And as you can see, they still win hard there. For any ammount of Reavers, times 1.5. And the number of Normal is easily beatable. As long as you have all those credits. So, when are Reavers cost efficient?

Either way, I tested a lot now. The limit was 18 Normal and 6 Reavers. Let's see what the rest brings?

28-12-60- 6 Reaver vs 14 Normal
17-_9-74- 6 Reaver vs 15 Normal
_7-_5-88- 6 Reaver vs 16 Normal
_2-_2-96- 6 Reaver vs 17 Normal
_1-_1-98- 6 Reaver vs 18 Normal

Going back to the cost efficiency...
I could approach this in 2 ways. Either I check the resources needed, if they win. Or I limit on resources again. See the very first table?

60-_6-34- 6 Reaver,10 Credits,11 Normal <+

Would be the best "fair" score for the Reavers. If I reduce the ammount of Credits for this one. And see if they still have a chance on winning. I can determine if a cost efficient situation can take place. It doesn't matter this time if they win or not. A lower credit means that it can be part of a higher credit situation.

76-_9-15- infinite Credits
60-_6-34- 10 Credits; "fair"
37-_2-60- 9 Credits; saved 1 credit
18-_1-81- 8 Credits; saved 2 credits
_4-_0-96- 7 Credits; saved 3 credits

Could I say that the 37 compared to that 60. Is more like a 62% chance that we save at least 1 credit for that victory? I don't know. But having that big of a chance on a chance for being cost efficient is a good thing to know.
Likewise, 30% chance on saving at least 2 credits for the same victory is also nice to know. But this is only an estimate. It comes from an assumption. Not a true test that counts remaining credits.

I have done all the tests I could do at the moment. Maybe it boils down to the secondairy step of cost efficiency that I need to consider. When applying Reavers. It would be, seeing how many times, 6 Reavers can defeat squads of 6 Normal. And see how many credits are needed.

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