Board Game Designers Forum - Comments for "Chance calculation help needed"
https://www.bgdf.com/forum/game-creation/design-theory/chance-calculation-help-needed
Comments for "Chance calculation help needed"enThanks for the info.
https://www.bgdf.com/forum/game-creation/design-theory/chance-calculation-help-needed#comment-72821
<p>Thanks for the info.</p>
<p>It seems that I noticed my mistake in time.</p>
Sun, 26 Oct 2014 14:05:01 +0000X3Mcomment 72821 at https://www.bgdf.comHere you go
https://www.bgdf.com/forum/game-creation/design-theory/chance-calculation-help-needed#comment-72818
<p>Looking just at one die</p>
<p>0: 1/6 + (1/6)(1/3) = 4/18 = 2/9<br />
1: 1/3 + (1/6)(1/3) = 7/18<br />
2: 1/3 + (1/6)(1/3) = 7/18</p>
<p>That is, the chance of rolling a 0 is 1/6 (i.e. rolling a 2) plus 1/6 * 1/3 (i.e. rolling a 1, then rolling a 1 or a 2).</p>
<p>So the chance of getting these combos is<br />
0, 0: (2/9)(2/9) = 4/81<br />
0, 1: (2/9)(7/18) = 7/81<br />
0, 2: (2/9)(7/18) = 7/81<br />
1, 0: (7/18)(2/9) = 7/81<br />
1, 1: (7/18)(7/18) = 49/324<br />
1, 2: (7/18)(7/18) = 49/324<br />
2, 0: (7/18)(2/9) = 7/81<br />
2, 1: (7/18)(7/18) = 49/324<br />
2, 2: (7/18)(7/18) = 49/324</p>
<p>Sum, rolling 2 dice<br />
0: 4/81 ~= 4.9%<br />
1: 7/81 + 7/81 ~= 17.3%<br />
2: 7/81 + 49/324 + 7/81 ~= 32.5%<br />
3: 49/324 + 49/324 ~= 30.2%<br />
4: 49/324 ~= 15.1%</p>
<p>So your second set was correct.</p>
Sun, 26 Oct 2014 01:00:33 +0000Zag24comment 72818 at https://www.bgdf.com