Board Game Designers Forum - Comments for "Set and Run Probability without Mathematics"
https://www.bgdf.com/forum/game-creation/mechanics/set-and-run-probability-without-mathematics
Comments for "Set and Run Probability without Mathematics"enThanks
https://www.bgdf.com/forum/game-creation/mechanics/set-and-run-probability-without-mathematics#comment-197
<p>Thanks for all comments.</p>
<p>I'll pass along the deck info, but I'm hoping mostly to understand what I should and should not count. Mind you, I do want to count the three-of-a-kind if there's a four-of-a-kind: some things in the game can be done with three and others with four, so a player may well want to only play the three. I just want to make sure that if I have one four-of-a-kind then I should count it as a four, a three, and 2 twos rather than as a four, 4 threes, and 6 twos.</p>
<p>The deck has five suits and seven ranks (1-7) twice. That's 70 cards. There are also five wild cards that can be anything, for a total of 75 of these types of cards. Sets are same-numbered cards, any suit, two or more. Runs are all the same suit in consecutive order, two or more, with wraparounds allowed (6, 7, 1, 2, 3, all of the same suit, is a valid 5-card run). </p>
<p>The wild cards, the duplication of cards (two of everything except wilds), and the wraparound of the runs makes the math pretty hard, but my computer program already takes all of that into account. I just don't know how to count the hand, though I'm now about 90% certain that a four of a kind is one 4, one 3, and two 2s.</p>
Mon, 04 Aug 2008 21:52:30 +0000MatthewFcomment 197 at https://www.bgdf.comThe natural way to estimate
https://www.bgdf.com/forum/game-creation/mechanics/set-and-run-probability-without-mathematics#comment-196
<p>The natural way to estimate the probabilities with a computer program is to initialize an empty array with N elements, where N is the number of ranks. Then generate a random hand of cards. Go through the hand one card at a time, and increment the Jth element of the array when you reach a card of rank J. When you are done, look to see if any of the elements are greater than one. In your example, the 3rd element of the array will be 4 when you've gone through the hand. This avoids counting the four-of-a-kind as any smaller combo.</p>
<p>Record whatever sets were in the hand. Reinitialize the array and generate a new hand. Repeat for many, many hands.</p>
<p>If you want help with the mathematical, analytic solution, rather than the computational, brute force solution, you'll need to tell us more about the structure of the deck. But the computational approach should give you enough precision.</p>
Mon, 04 Aug 2008 19:03:59 +0000fecunditycomment 196 at https://www.bgdf.comWhat is the total number of
https://www.bgdf.com/forum/game-creation/mechanics/set-and-run-probability-without-mathematics#comment-195
<p>What is the total number of cards in the deck?</p>
<p>What is the breakdown of cards per suite?</p>
<p>Are there duplicate cards (same suite/value)?</p>
Mon, 04 Aug 2008 18:25:42 +0000Zzzzzcomment 195 at https://www.bgdf.comYour deck?
https://www.bgdf.com/forum/game-creation/mechanics/set-and-run-probability-without-mathematics#comment-194
<p>I noticed you didn't mention how many cards there are in your deck, what are the values, how many suits, etc. Maybe if you do, some generous person, versed in probability, might give you the answer to your questions. Sadly, I am not the right person, but if there is one around, it would help to know your deck better.</p>
Mon, 04 Aug 2008 18:16:18 +0000seocomment 194 at https://www.bgdf.com