Things are going really well with my latest game Shake Out! (thanks again to AndyGB for the name), my testers are having fun, the numbers are gelling much better, the rules are looking good and full of helpful graphics BUUUUT!.. I'm afraid I've been lead astray!

I poked around the internet and ended up asking a mathier friend of mine for help with coming up with the single roll probabilities of rolling each possible combination used in the game on five dice. Here's my problem.. something doesn't add up and I'm afraid my ranking is wrong!

So, here are the different combinations as they are ranked now, from easiest to hardest to roll.

-Pair

-Three of A Kind

-Three Straight

-Four Straight

-Five Straight

-Four of A Kind

-Five of A Kind

The problem is, I'm pretty darn sure we calculated something wrong because a Three of a Kind should NOT be more probable than a Three Strait!

Please help me!

PS:If all goes well (including fixing this little issue) I should have this game available through The Game Crafter by mid December! YAY!

Well, I haven't touched a script or code since high school, so brute forcing it with a program list isn't an option. However I can tell you how I got the (flawed?) probabilities I have now and what they are.

For the Two of A Kind, Three of A Kind, Four of A Kind, Five of A Kind and Five Straight I got the numbers from the Wizard of Odds website. These are:

Two of A Kind= 46.30%

Three of A Kind= 15.43%

Four of A Kind= 1.93%

Five of A Kind= 0.08%

Five Straight= 3.09%

In all these cases, the equation used boils down to figuring out how many permutations of the combination is possible then dividing that by 7776.

I asked a friend to help me with figuring out the two combinations not found on the website, the Three Straight and the Four Straight (BTW, a strait is simply a consecutive series of numbers.. so a Three Straight can be 1-2-3, 2-3-4, 3-4-5 or 4-5-6).

My friend came up with this equation:

((5 ^ (5 - N)) * (6 - (N-1)) * N! / (6^5))*100

Where N is the length of the straight... This, BTW gives the same result as above for a Five Straight, but, these are the probabilities it gives for the missing combinations:

Three Straight= 7.72%

Four Straight= 4.63%