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need help with "space hulk" dice roll

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kodokijo
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Joined: 08/19/2013

Melee in space hulk have the space marine roll one dice against three dice roll of the genestealer. Take the highest die result from the throw, highest die wins.

I'm thinking in using this dice roll mechanics on my game. Could anyone tell me the probability of win per added dice?

I understand if it's one dice vs one dice, both roll have equal chance to win. How far of the disadvantages of the player that rolls one less die?

And even if one player rolls ten dice against one die, the one dice still have a chance to beat the ten dice, this is what I love with this mechanics.

schattentanz
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Joined: 02/18/2014
Aydice.com

You might want to check www.anydice.com

Enter in the textfield the following:

output output d6 > 3d6

then click on "calculate"

You will notice, that beginning with "d6 > 5d6" the chances of this event being true virtually become nonexistant ..

Kind regards,
Kai

kodokijo
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Joined: 08/19/2013
misunderstanding?

I think there's a misunderstanding here.

Player A roll 2 dice: result 1 and 5
Player B roll 3 dice: result 2,3,4

Take each player's highest die result and compare them. In the case of the example above, player A wins over player B, with 5 beating 4.

Thus the probability question, how many percentage does a player with more dice to beat the lesser die?

ElKobold
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Joined: 04/10/2015
schattentanz wrote:You might

schattentanz wrote:
You might want to check www.anydice.com

Enter in the textfield the following:

output output d6 > 3d6

then click on "calculate"

You will notice, that beginning with "d6 > 5d6" the chances of this event being true virtually become nonexistant ..

Kind regards,
Kai

I believe d6 > 3d6 would not show the exact scenario that the TS had in mind.

I.e. it implies the sum of 3d6. While he needs the highest roll.

schattentanz
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Joined: 02/18/2014
Aaaaah .. ok .. I clearly

Aaaaah .. ok .. I clearly misunderstood!

BUT

Even this task can be done via anydice :)

The formula is

output 1d6 > 1@3d6

"output" asks for a result
"1d6" is the 1d6 you are rolling
"1@3d6" means, you are rolling 3d6 and they are sorted with the highest result getting the lowest number before the @.
So when you are rolling, say, 5d6 and want to get the highest result, you ask anydice for "1@5d6". If you need the lowest result, you ask for "5@5d6".
Highest result for 10 dice? 1@10d6
Lowest result for 10 dice? 10@10d6.

Chances for 2D6 procuring one higher die than 3D6?

output 1@2d6 > 1@3d6

edit: The result is 2 chances: the "0" chance for "not gonna happen" and the "1" chance for "your chance is this high"..

Kind regards,
Kai :)

kos
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Joined: 01/17/2011
Any Dice

The calculation on anydice.com is:

X: 1d6
output (X > 1d6)
output (X > 1d6) & (X > 1d6)
output (X > 1d6) & (X > 1d6) & (X > 1d6)
output (X > 1d6) & (X > 1d6) & (X > 1d6) & (X > 1d6)
etc...

(I'm sure there is a more elegant way of expressing that, but it works.)

1v1 = 41%
1v2 = 17%
1v3 = 7%
1v4 = 1.5%
1v5 = 1.2%
1v6 = 0.5%

This is assuming that the first dice must be higher than the second to win. Obviously the probabilities change if being equal is good enough.

[Edit: Listen to schattentanz. They knows more than me.]

Regards,
kos

MattPlays
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Joined: 04/12/2015
what

happens if they draw?

schattentanz
schattentanz's picture
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Joined: 02/18/2014
on a draw

> explicitly is larger than, < explicitly is smaller than. Of course you may use the operators >= or <= to check for equal results as well.

Kind regards,
Kai

Soulfinger
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Joined: 01/06/2015
Thanks for sharing the

Thanks for sharing the anydice link, schattentanz. That will save me the hassle of a lot of longhand equations . . . or give me a math overdose.

kodokijo, keep in mind that the 3d vs. 1d combat mechanic of Space Hulk is meant to represent the desperate, statistically improbable odds of a terminator defeating a genestealer once they are engaged in close combat. It is a miracle for the terminator to win, as 7% is not even half the chance of rolling a 6 on a d6. This is balanced out by the terminators having an opportunity to shoot incoming enemies. As Kos demonstrated, the odds of beating four or more dice are negligible -- although dice do tend to defy probability.

The mechanic is essentially the same as Risk, albeit with instant death in place of losing armies. There is an insane amount of statistical analysis available online for that game. Emulating Risk would allow you to implement hit points in your game if you need some factor to balance out not having a shooting phase, for example. You can also juggle who wins ties through item cards, etc. to manipulate the odds.

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