Seems I have caused a shifted balance issue within one of my games. I do not understand how this happened. I don't understand how this shift works exactly. But it clearly occurs when I add something "special"; like a split up cannon.

Here is the problem:

In my game, we have some tanks fighting.

Each tank has it's own weaponry system.

Now the case is regarding 2 tanks.

Tank A, is a classic tank doing 25 damage and has 75 health.

Tank B, is a special tank doing 9 damage and 16 damage, and also has a health of 75.

A cannon can; miss, hit, or hit twice.

This means that Tank A (3 options) does damage; 0, 25 or 50.

Tank B (9 options) does damage; 0, 9, 16, 18, 25, 32, 34, 41 or 50.

Obviously, having 3 hits means that the other tank dies.

And obviously, in the first round, no tank dies.

However, (after building a probability tree) after the second round.

There is a chance of 27 out of 81 that Tank A beats Tank B. Yet Tank B has only a chance of 12 out of 81 for beating Tank A. (Correct?)

This surprized me. Clearly I am forgetting something, etc. etc. Blablabla.

What happens after round 3?

What am I missing? Maybe it turns around after a couple of rounds?

Or should I consider the total damage over X rounds?

Can someone help me get a complete list of dying chances, after X rounds?

Or can someone explain to me why there is such a difference?

Yes they are. 1/3th each.

That is why the tank with the double weapon has 9 outcomes each round.

Tomorrow, I will draw out the tree much further for observation.

In theory, both tanks should be equally effective against targets that have 75 health.

But then again, perhaps I have made a huge mistake in my calculations.

If someone can tell me what a good program is to use for these kind of tests?